NFL PROJECTIONS · PUBLISHED WITH THEIR OWN FAILURES
Draft on numbers that survived a reality check.
Every projection you have ever bought sounds equally confident. Ours are checked against depth charts and beat reporting first - and the 4 that failed the check are published too, so you can see precisely where the model was about to cost you a pick.
The receipts nobody else will show you
Anyone can publish projections. The question that decides whether they are worth money is what happens to the ones that turn out wrong - and the industry answer is that they quietly disappear.
Ours do not. 4 of the 25 signals this build checked died on inspection, each with the reason attached. You get to audit us before you trust us, which is the only sequence that should ever be acceptable to you.
We built it as the flagship paid package, then checked roughly forty competitor pricing pages and found nobody selling an accuracy audit at any price. So no tier pays extra for it, this one included - what it asks for is an account, and a new account gets 30 days of it free, no card.
Audit us first - account required →MODEL RB25 at ADP 76
REALITY Not the lead back. Camp carries through seven practices: Warren 17, Dowdle 14, Johnson 9, and the one beat reporter with a strong opinion projects Dowdle at 65–70% of snaps.
MODEL RB24 at ADP 86
REALITY Hamstring that required an MRI, week-to-week, and Jonathon Brooks started the preseason opener.
MODEL RB22 at ADP 99
REALITY Confirmed RB1, but a fourth soft-tissue flare-up in an injury-defined career, and rookie Jonah Coleman — not RJ Harvey — is the backup rusher and a camp standout.
MODEL RB23 at ADP 142 — inherits the job after Kenneth Walker left for KC
REALITY Tore his ACL in the January divisional round, surgery 2/20, on PUP since 7/22 and still there 8/14. If he's on PUP at cutdowns he misses a minimum of four games. And Walker was replaced by Jadarian Price, the No. 32 overall pick.
Built as answers, not dashboards
Each one answers a question you actually have on draft night, and publishes what it does not cover so you never buy a box and find out later what was missing. The full parameter list for every package is inside.
Positional Stat Lines
Every projected stat line, by position, season and week.
Injury & Availability Intel
Modelled P(active) per player, plus dated sourced adjustments with quantified impact.
Market Divergence Board
Ranked, sortable model-vs-market gaps, plus who each player is actually matched against.
Licensed Data Access
The whole dataset, versioned and hash-pinned - with a licence that says what you may do with it.
Touchdown Equity
Anytime TD%, 2+ TD%, and the team touchdown budget each one is drawn from.
Draft Value Engine
VBD, tiers, auction dollars and the gap to market ADP.
Draft Availability Simulator
P(this player is still there) at each of your picks, from a large simulated-draft run.
Game Forecast
Win probability, projected score and the full outcome distribution for every game.
Verification Ledger
Every model signal, checked against the news - including the ones that died.
Leg Correlation Matrix
Model-implied TD-prop dependence, plus MEASURED half-PPR points correlation, side by side.
Outcome Board
Pick your own players or a team's starters and see the group's combined point range - naive independence next to the measured correlation adjustment, side by side.
NHL Game Forecast
Win probability, projected margin and the model-vs-market read for every NHL game.
The Weekly Board
The week's synthesis, run and ranked before you ask: top TD outcomes, top yardage, and simulated candidate lineups.
No row is ever withheld. Pay only to fill the empty cells.
Nothing is hidden by row - every player, every game, every availability score is there on every plan, the trial included. What you are buying is our arithmetic in the columns beside them.
2026 Draft Kit
One payment for 9 days. No card kept on file, nothing to remember to cancel.
Full Active access to every NFL package - eleven of the twelve Active-tier packages, including The Weekly Board - from purchase through the final Week 1 kickoff. NHL Game Forecast is not included; it comes with the NHL Season Pass or any Active or Feed subscription. No renewal, no card on file.
Buy once - CA$392026 In-Season Pass
The same 162 days billed monthly costs CA$174. No card kept on file, nothing to cancel.
Full Active access to every NFL package from purchase through Super Bowl LXI on 14 February 2027 - the regular season and the whole postseason. NHL Game Forecast is not included; it comes with the NHL Season Pass or any Active or Feed subscription.
Buy once - CA$137Free month
Full Active access from the moment you start - every column of every package it opens, not a sample of them.
No card, and nothing is ever charged automatically. Full Active access opens now, free, for 30 days. Choose a plan before it ends and access carries straight through; do nothing and access locks - your account and data stay exactly as they are, and purchasing CA$29/mo turns it back on the moment you're ready.
Start your free monthActive
One person making real roster decisions this week - drafters in August, lineup-setters in October.
OR CA$249/YR
Choose ActiveFeed
Anyone who needs the data inside their own spreadsheet, model, notebook or product rather than inside our web pages.
OR CA$849/YR
Choose FeedREPRODUCIBLE BY CONSTRUCTION
Every release pins a dataset version and the SHA-256 of each upstream file that produced it. Those digests are public and stay public - clone the repo, rebuild, compare. Paywalling a reproducibility claim would make it unverifiable, which would make it worthless. The inventory behind them - row counts, sources, the limits we state against ourselves - opens with an account, on any plan.
PRECISION IS NEVER INVENTED
Where a source rounds to one decimal place, the field records that limit rather than printing five digits of false confidence. Touchdown probabilities are recomputed from the documented Poisson relation, with the original kept beside them for audit.
INTERVALS SHIP WITH ESTIMATES
The top scorer on this slate is Jahmyr Gibbs at 63.1% to find the end zone - which also means a 36.9% chance he does not. Every game carries a 90% interval, and the biggest favourite on the board still loses one time in five.
Every empty cell beside your player has an answer.
CA$29/mo fills it on every row of every package at once. A new account gets 30 days of full Active access free, no card - choose a plan before it ends and nothing changes; do nothing and access locks, never charges, never deletes.